Monthly Archives: April 2009

Here we go again… Oil Price Speculation or Real?

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CNBC.com this morning has an article that I wasn’t expecting until at least August this year. But here it is all the same. The topic? Oil Prices Resist the World’s Recession Trend

Their main point:

The resilience shown by the oil markets is not because of any improvement in the global economy or rise in oil consumption. Global demand remains on course for its steepest drop since the early 1980s, and oil inventories are at their highest levels in 19 years.

Instead, analysts said, oil is once again being sought by investors as a refuge against a slumping dollar and rising inflation.

Lets stop right there. Slumping Dollar? The US Dollar has gained over 20% over the Canadian dollar since July and the same can be said for the Euro and Yen. INFLATION? Last month, the US officially experienced DEFLATION (negative inflation)… so I’m really not sure what planet CNBC is on!

But then, the very next sentence, they take a different tone:

Stabilization of the oil price is also a victory for the OPEC cartel, which has succeeded in cutting output sharply to match lower demand.

and so, once again, it’s all evil OPECs fault. Because, you know, it has nothing to do with plummeting oil production in Mexico (World #3 Super Giant field Cantarell is now producing less than other Mexican fields).

Oh.. but wait…

The perception remains well ingrained in the market that oil supplies, while plentiful today, may prove insufficient once demand picks up again.

Huh. So you mean investors don’t buy the “drill drill drill” mantra? You mean investors have looked abroad and seen conventional production in Mexico, Canada, the UK, Russia and Norway declining even while prices skyrocketed over the past 5 years? You mean investors have seen Saudi Arabia hit a wall, unable to pump more oil without damaging it’s fields.

Investors know this.

The OECD knows this.

So why the “speculation” talk? We have been given a great opportunity during this recession… depression, the first shrinking of the world economy since WWII (OECD), demand is knocked down. The pressure is off… people are LOOKING for work. We need to put them to work creating a new economy… low energy, high efficiency, low carbon.

If we wait until “recovery” happens, then we are doomed to be right back here within 2 years.

Twittering my yard

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6:55:59 PM: Planted Concorde grapes today http://twitpic.com/3v9x2

6:56:54 PM: The herb garden is coming back http://twitpic.com/3va00

6:58:08 PM: Thrhubarb lives! http://twitpic.com/3va2m

6:58:50 PM: Dog ate the kids book http://twitpic.com/3va4p

6:59:42 PM: Flower garden is coming back http://twitpic.com/3va6w

7:00:53 PM: Daphodyls are almost done… Time for tulips http://twitpic.com/3va9q

7:02:23 PM: A beautiful evening to end the post. http://twitpic.com/3vad2

5:44:00 AM: New post: Here we go again… Oil Price Speculation or Real? (http://cli.gs/TzDMPy)

5:46:24 AM: Post Edited: Here we go again… Oil Price Speculation or Real? (#url#) http://cli.gs/TzDMPy

8:39:05 AM: Hey @TheOilDrum so when will Gore release An Inconvenient Truth 2 : Addicted to Oil

8:47:13 AM: @TheOilDrum ah good… that means my pet conspiracy theory that the whole Climate Change thing was just slightly overtrumped in order to …

8:48:02 AM: @TheOilDrum wake up and address Peak Oil

How to find out target ridings for BC-STV

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So there was a post this morning on the BC STV website about a volunteer in North Vancouver doing some online research and coming up with specific areas in their riding that had not reached 60% in the 2005 referendum so that they could be targeted with information pamphlets.

It’s actually not too difficult, at least if you know where to go.

So I thought I would post the resources here for people so that others could do the same for their riding.

#1: Go get Elections BC 2005 Referendum results.

#2: Find your riding in the PDF and print out the maps that have the voting areas.

#3: From the PDF you should be able to copy and paste the table from the PDF into an Excel sheet. This is the hardest step because sometimes it doesn’t copy and paste right… so you might have to copy it into a text file one line at a time, then import it into Excel. It’s important to get it into Excel so that you can calculate the percentages automatically. It makes everything else much easier! When you’re done, you can create an extra column with percentages… like I did with my riding here (download XLS file here)
Alberni Qualicum 2005 Referendum results
So now you have the voting geography… and the voting percentages…

#4: Now you can find your worst percentage areas and shade in the areas on your maps you printed out. (or do it digitally with a program like Photoshop or OmniGraffle)

#5: Now you need Carrier routes so you can tell Canada Post where you want your pamphlets to go. Go on the Canada Post HouseHold Counts and Maps webpage.

#6: Go to the Province and Urban area of your choice…

#7: Once you’re in your City, look for the “LCW Map” (Letter Carrier Walk). This will tell you where the different delivery routes are!

#8: Now you can note those routes on your maps. And maybe come out with something that looks like this!

Alberni region STV results
Qualicum region STV results
Alberni Qualicum region STV results

That’s it! (Click the images for the larger, zoomable, PDF versions of each)

Transition Town Port Alberni first gathering!

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7:57:30 PM: We’re talking about what Transition Towns is…

8:01:23 PM: Went through the Transition Primer and the Principles in the Transition Handbook (www.transitiontowns.org)

8:07:27 PM: the global problem is just too much to consider…

8:07:42 PM: have to act locally because that’s the only change we can make anyway

8:07:59 PM: you can be a role model in your own community

8:08:45 PM: it’s just a matter of being a role model to Transition to a low-Energy pathway.

8:18:24 PM: Talking about creating a local currency for Port Alberni area businesses to encourage the business community

8:24:56 PM: Modelled after the Saltspring Island Dollar. http://www.saltspringdollars.com/

9:21:34 PM: The meeting just ended. Had a great discussion about what the next steps will be

9:21:46 PM: There will be another meeting on or around the 6th

9:22:04 PM: Dan is going to create a Port Alberni Transition mailing list

9:23:05 PM: We all agreed to try to bring 2 more people that might be interested to learn about what starting a Transition Town involves

9:25:17 PM: Throughout the meeting Guy kept bringing us back to the principles of Transition Town list in the book and on the primer (linked before)

9:26:12 PM: It naturally matched up with what we were chatted about during the meeting

9:26:55 PM: So… that’s it I guess. Next meeting, May 6, Dans place, you can email me to get on the mailing list if you’re not already.

9:30:45 PM: The short term goal is to get enough interested people in order to get a Transition Town Steering Group together.

Be a Marrow Donor

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I just signed up to be a Bone Marrow donor. Will you?

You should, you might never have to actually donate your bone marrow stem cells, but then again, you might be the only person in the whole world with the perfect match.

You can join the “OneMatch” program online at Canadian Blood Services. If you agree to sign up and get through the questionnaire (which, if you’ve ever donated blood, is very similar) then all you will need to do is go in to have a swab of your cheek taken at a Hospital or Clinic. Your information will kept on file, anonymously and compared with patients needing a donor. All the information is on the site.

It’s so easy to be a member, and even though actually donating marrow is more involved then just giving blood, it is also that much more rare and precious.

You must be between 18 and 50 (17-50 in Quebec).