A major policy speech introducing the new “plan” by the Conservative Party of Canada to reduce Canadian GhG emissions has been leaked to the Opposition Liberals tonight… and in an attempt to avoid influencing the markets before they open tomorrow (Wednesday), the crux of the plan has been released.

The CBC reports:

The speech says that by 2020, the government hopes it will have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 150 million tonnes.

It also says the government will explore emission credit trading with the U.S. and Mexico, something they have been reluctant to embrace in the past.

“The Tory government intends to stop the rise of greenhouse gases in three to five years”.

So… this begs numbers.

OK. Here’s the Quick Facts thanks to Environment Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory and some quick math:

The Kyoto Target: ie. 1990 CO2 levels for Canada: 599 Megatonnes (MT)
2004 CO2 emissions: 754MT
Estimated 2007 emissions given 2% growth rate: 790MTB
Estimated 2012 emission given 1% average growth (the slowdown period): 820MT
Emissions with Conservatives reduction plan by 2020: 670MT (equal to 1998 levels)

See the bottom for the explanation of the numbers if you’d like…. I know it’s not most peoples thing.

So, eight years after other countries have met their Kyoto commitment, Canada would be bringing up the rear… still 12% off. I’m inclined to be very unimpressed by this goal. Especially since if it’s so “tough” to even do this, we gotta start soon, and yet, we still haven’t heard how the Conservatives propose to do it. If they can actually do this… I think I could live with it. Given what is happening in the Oil Sands, it is going to be very difficult to cool off the incredible growth in that region. So if we can get down to 670 by 2020, I’d say that’s OK. Nothing to be proud of, but OK.

The GHG Inventory above gives a great pie chart of CO2 emissions by industry.

Oil & Gas, Transportation, and Electricity Generation (Coal/Gas) are the major emitters at about 20% each. With domestic Natural Gas supplies likely in major decline by 2012 (coincidence? I think not)… I see Nuclear power in Alberta, and Canadas, future to replace all the Gas fired plants.

They say the Conservatives will use Carbon Trading to meet their goals as well. This makes me very very sceptical. I see this as the gift to the Oil and Gas industry… which means we could see no reduction at all in the worst emitters, and general polluters, in the country.

What’s missing in this? Transportation… I’m hoping the Conservatives will surprise me and introduce major incentives for consumers and industry to reduce transportation emisssions. That could only take the form of high-mileage cars, more rail, and more mass transit. These would be the only changes that would create the real societal changes that would actually reduce our *perceived need* to endlessly emit CO2.

If… instead, the Conservatives (like their Liberal predecessors) focus solely on “conservation”, it will simply not be enough… Canadians, I think, have already gotten that message. We need more concrete, widespread action. Enough beating around the bush. Lets get to it as a nation.

Here is the Math….

EnvCan sets the baseline at 599 Megatonnes (MT) of CO2 (ie. the 1990 “Kyoto” target). EnvCan says as of 2004 we gained 27%… to 754MT, about 2% growth a year for the past 14 years.

If we grew 2% a year since 2004 and over the next 5 years we grow by an average of 1% a year… (assuming we “slow” our growth gradually) that’s about 12% more on the 1990 level or 820MT by 2012. So the Tories want to reduce our emissions by 150MT by 2020 (8 years further on). 150MT will bring us to around 670MT, which is about where we were at in 1998.

There will be ceremonies today at the Vimy Ridge memorial rededicating it after a 3 year restoration process.

I travelled to France in 2003, and my stop at Vimy Ridge was the most memorable and striking part of my tour. It is a solemn place, a place of mourning. Not of celebration.

Below are a couple pictures… of Normandy, of Dieppe (another battle this time in WWII that was much less “successful” and very costly), and of Vimy.

I’ve also included the words I wrote back in August 2003 after I had returned. They describe best my pilgrimage to this place. I would also like to note the loss of 6 more Canadian soldiers yesterday in Afghanistan. While Vimy and Kandahar are worlds apart, the sacrifice and cost remain. I fully support our troops and understand their sacrifice and their raison-d’etre. But lest-we-forget that at the end of the Great War, the words “Never Again” rang out. The human race has yet to figure out how to resolve it’s difference without resorting to war. I will continue to hope, and advocate for a day when peaceful negotiation can always, and forever replace bloody conflict. Then places like Vimy will not only be places of mourning and pride for loss of our best and brightest, but also places to remind us of why we can never do it again. After the bloodiest century in human history, I hope that that day will come sooner rather than later.

Normandy… (click on image for full size)

Dieppe…

Vimy…

My Memories of the day I walked from Arras to Vimy…

The stories of Arras and Vimy Ridge are intertwined. There were actually tunnels from the city halls and buidings of Arras all the way to the front lines near Vimy Ridge.

On one of the very hot days when I was there in June 2003, I walked from the center of Arras all the way to Vimy Ridge. It took me about 4 hours… I think it was around 30km. I tried to keep to the country roads out of town… there are plenty in France… the countryside was quiet and beautiful. I perfect pilgrimage.

As I got closer to the site of the memorial, visual clues around me triggered a growing sense of anticipation and quiet at the same time. The heat beat down upon me as if to ensure that both body and mind were sufficiently assaulted.

As I approached the memorial there was suddenly a forest. After seeing only huge expanses of fields and grass this native stand of trees was odd. When I entered the forest it became clear that this forest was as much a part of the memorial as the stone monument itself. Amongst the trees were huge depressions, poked periodically by small red flags. The flags signalled the position of mines, and bombs and grenades… all manner of ordnance… still left from 80 years before… the depressions were craters, from bombs, shells and battle.

I continued to walk up the now nicely shaded road, the occasional car passing by. The hill was a steady climb into the forest, but it was not clear when I would reach the crest.

Then through the trees I could see a clearing, indeed, it looked as though the forest ended as quickly as it appeared. A few more steps and all I could see was the monument.

I have never been so moved by an object. I was not prepared for how this visit would affect me and apparently I was not prepared even for my initial reaction. My stomach flipped and tears quickly swelled in my eyes. I had never seen anything quite so beautiful and powerful and imposing all at the same time.

That is why I took the pictures I did. From a distance. This was the point where I first perceived the monument, and I simply could not bring myself to take more pictures of it after that. So moved was I by the reverance of the place that I would not, could not, embarrass it and its’ visitors by taking photographs.

As I walked up the path… cordoned off on both sides to protect visitors from entering the deadly surrounding fields, the majesty of the monument made me bow my head. I found it difficult to look at it. It was as if the statues were challenging me to look them in the eye and keep my composure.

It was too much for some. There were a handful of people looking for names enscribed in the stone…and more than one cried out in grief as they found the name of their loved one.

I am proud of what my countrymen did at Vimy Ridge, but my visit to the sight did not fill me with pride. It was with great sadness that I looked out upon the French countryside that was the final resting place of so many men and women. And given the events of the previous few months in Iraq and elsewhere it was a startling reminder of the horror that war brings upon all involved.

Some very interesting points in this CBC article about the new IPCC report on climate change this morning. I’m hoping to get a chance to go through the whole thing this weekend, though I’m not totally clear on if it is actually released or not.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/04/06/climate-un.html

An incredible amount of hard data was used for this report… these are not simply vague predictions.

[quote]the science… was based on 29,000 sets of data, much of it collected in the last five years.[/quote]

A very interesting, new (at least to me), “objector” has emerged… Saudi Arabia.

[quote]The United States, China and Saudi Arabia raised many of the objections to the phrasing, often seeking to tone down the certainty of some of the more dire projections.[/quote]

Saudi is, of course, the largst producer oil in the world and has the most to lose if we cut down our fossil fuel use, which is the main cause of GG emissions.

[quote]During the final session, the conference snagged over a sentence that said the impact of climate change already were being observed on every continent and in most oceans.[/quote]

the offending sentence was… (offending to governments, mind you, not to the scientists!)

[quote]There is very high confidence that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases[/quote]

Governments (China) wanted to get rid of the word “very”. The scientists in charge of that section of the report refused. The US made a “compromise” to “delete any reference to confidence levels.

That doesn’t sound like a compromise to me! Sounds like a downright capitulation and watering down of the report.

And Canada is going to be front-and-center in this change.

The BBC has an excellent graphic half-way down their report showing the change in Arctic sea ice since 1980.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6532323.stm

I think it should be made clear that there is no reason to be overly depressed about these things. Yes, the world is changing. Yes, humans are largely responsible for it. But even if we fail to change our own ways quickly enough to avert short-term pain, and return the workings of Mother Earths to her own control, then we will adapt.

It may be a painful transition, but it will remind us that we are simply creatures of this Earth and we are far too small and insignificant to dare to be so arrogant, to think that we can forever dominate the Earth.

Here’s the report courtesy, the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/06_04_05_climate.pdf