Today on The Oil Drum is an excellent analysis of production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin… also know as “The Oil (and Gas) Patch”.

This is where 95% of Canadas’ Natural Gas comes from. And where 1/4 of all of North Americas used Natural Gas is extracted.

Please, go check it out… but the basics are this. In 1999, the National Energy Board of Canada predicted two scenarios for future Natural Gas production in Canada… Scenario #1: Peak is in 2013 and Scenario #2 Peak was in 2008. (As I’ve mentioned before on this blog)

Now… however, In the 2003 report… *both* scenarios show the Peak has having already passed in 2001.

That means we in Canada will never produce as much Natural Gas as we did in 2001.

Never.

Go check out the rest of the analysis of these statistics from NEB and StatsCan.

P.S. You’ll also note in the graphic showing all the various reserves of Natural Gas in North America. You will notice that the reserves under moratorium in the Queen Charlotte Basin and the West Coast of Canada are not included. There are wildly different estimates for the size of those reserves… from 25 triilion cubic meters (BC Energy and Mines, date unknown) or just around 1 trillion cubic meters (Geological Survey of Canada, 1988).

Either way… the reserve there is significantly less, even than the reserves on the East Coast, and are completely dwarfed by the WCSB.

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I watched President Bush tonight. And I have to admit. For the first time that I remember, I actually detected… well i don’t know.. it seemed so foreign. Was it honesty? Or was it just what I wanted to hear.. not in substance, but in delivery?

Makes one wonder just how much of what Bush has said since 2001 has been directly piped from people around him. So is he now talking from his own mouth, or simply from his new handlers on Iraq?

I have many bones to pick with the address, but I’m sure they will be picked clean by hundreds of others.. so instead, I’d like to focus on this story from DefenseTech.org

particularly this comment:

Also, this set of National Security Council slides — especially #7, on the changed “key assumptions” about Iraq — is, for this White House, almost jaw-dropping realistic and head-headed.

And it’s the truth.. Here’s the slide.

Point-by-Point, the “Now” sounds downright realistic.. not to mention 2 years late, but that’s beside the point.
Point-by-Point how does the “Now” in this slide stack up to what we heard tonight?

#1: What I heard was that “Terrorists” and “Sunnis” were the problem… no specific mention of Shia groups (PM Malikis’ supporters, no mention of common criminals let out by Saddam before the invasion.

#2: While the point was made for Baghdad… it was glossed over for the rest of Iraq. Provincial elections? Reconstruction teams? Distributing Iraqi oil money for infrastructure? It’ll do nothing without the basic security, in ALL of Iraq, to implement it.

#3: I don’t know that we heard Bush articulate this at all. What I heard was a lot of talk of Baghdad security… and not much else. Did I miss anything?

#4: This is about the only point so far that I think Bush hit bang on. It’s hard to hide from the blatantly obvious afterall.

#5: There was a call by Bush for Arab states to support the Iraqi government and the effort in Iraq. This slide says they are reluctant to do that. Anyone really think they are going to do anything other than build fences literal and figurative, to keep Iraqi chaos from spilling out of its’ borders.

#6: This point is kind of the natural expansion of the “Iran and Syria are making things Worse” argument. In reality, it’s not Iran and Syria… they’re simply the bigger cousins to very strong, established, and largely independant movements in Iraq. Are Iran and Syria helping their brethen Shia and Baath respectively… most assuredly. But this is Iraqi-grown, Iraqis are protecting themselves, Iran and Syria are doing nothing. Bush still doesn’t get it

#7: Dialogue with insurgents wasn’t mentioned by Bush… I don’t think it will happen… I’m not surprised by this, “dialogue” hasn’t proven to be Bush’s strong suit.

#8: This last point about the ISF is really up in the air. Bush made it clear that he’s putting a ton of responsibility and pressure on the ISF to do the job of securing Baghdad, and the rest of the country by November. But how can they in the state they are in? Throughout the speech Bush came off sounding like he was scolding a schoolchild who had barely passed an exam and was well on their way to failing the class.

What he doesn’t realise, is that often it is the teacher, not the student, that is most responsible for ensuring the student has the opportunity, tools, and ability to succeed.

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An inventor in the UK has come up with a device that is:(The Herald)

the first off-the-shelf water wheel system which can generate a good supply of electricity from a waterfall as little as 20cm in height.

That good supply? About 1 to 2KW … or 24-28KWh per day.

Now my household uses around 42KWh per day. But considering the potential for this device to be placed not only in small brooks and streams, but also in water supply systems (potentially throughout a houses plumbing system… no need for just one) and water drain/waste systems as well. This incredbly efficient device could have a huge impact on residential and industrial power generation.

The Device is known as a “Beck Mickle low head micro hydro generator“.

They’re currently taking the steps to bring it to market. It is supposed to be relatively low cost, around $4000 at the start. If it could pay half my electricity bill… that would make it pay off in around 5 years at current rates (which will likely go up) and if I don’t mitigate my electricity usage (which I plan to do ).

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The Islamic boogeyman has been eradicated by the forces of good…

mainly by these characters:

Indha Adde… Somali minister and warlord.

President: Abdullahi YUSUF Ahmed

The same people who have done nothing but fight amongst themselves for the past decade, leaving Somalia lawless, and hopeless.

The UIC had brought what many Somalis considered law, order, and most importantly it seems, a sense of hope to the South-East of the country. (the North-West has been effectively independent though internationally unrecognized, and known locally as Somaliland, for a long time)

Now they’ve been runout by Ethiopian troops and the former warlords.

No one seems to know how Somalis in Mogadishu and Kismayo feel about the change of control now.

But hey, at least the “bad guys” got run out of town right?

Update: Here’s an opinion from a blogger in Somaliland… at the rather opportune, Somaliland.org:

I will not say much about the rest of the so-called Provisional (Federal) Government. (Actually, the ‘federal’ part is a misnomer. It has no federal pact with the only other constituent of the Somali Republic of 1960, which is Somaliland.) Suffice to say that its so-called president, the ailing Col. Abdullahi Yusuf (The Reptilian Colonel) is a hyena, while his so-called prime minister, Mr. Gedi, can be likened to a jackal. Now both the hyena and the jackal are in league with the king of the beasts of the Horn of Africa,
Mr. Meles. God save all the peoples of the suffering Horn of Africa!

I conclude this article by repeating what I have previously said elsewhere.
Namely:

1. Supporting Meles’ adventure in Somalia is counterproductive, and will not serve the interests of any nation, including the US and Britain, reported to be supporting Meles’ politics at this time.

2. The so-called Provisional Government of Somalia should be disbanded; to replace it, a fresh genuine conference of Somali communities should be held inside Somalia, not in another foreign capital to avoid another foreign-appointed government for Somalia.

3. The people of Somaliland should be rewarded for their positive contribution to the Horn of Africa; they have created the only truly democratic and peaceful society in the Horn of Africa. They deserve international recognition and support. To deny them such a reward is tantamount to opening another war in the Horn of Africa, one that will dwarf
the current one.

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