Monthly Archives: December 2006

BC Hydro: We have No Power (For you!)

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Over the past few years, people in BC have often heard BC Hydro complaining of increased demand and a lack of generating capacity to deal with the strain.

Has anyone ever looked at the numbers?

Well I have.

From BC Hydros own Financial Reports (PDFs) (#1 and #2)

BC Hydro says:

Power to Energy ratios – rule of thumb
for thermal electric: MW x 8 = GWh per year
for large hydro: MW x 5 = GWh per year

OK… so capacity: 10, 200MW (50,000GWh/y) of Hydro, and 1,093MW (8,000GWh/y) of Thermal…

Which gives us about 58,000GW/h total capacity on the BC grid.

Alright… now we just need to know consumption.

2005

Domestic sales (GWh) 51 205
Trade [Export] sales (GWh) 29 706

So while yes, BC Hydro is very much at capacity in terms of it’s ability to provide power to residents of BC. To say that there is not enough power in the grid to serve all the needs of residents of BC is simply not true.

What they should be saying is… to serve the needs of BC, *and* satisfy it’s Energy Export business… BC Hydro needs about 50% more energy than it is producing per year. Take away those sales… and all of a sudden the power situation in BC is a lot more manageable.

Now here’s the real kicker:

Revenues(millions)

2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
Domestic 2,704 2,553 2,475 2,450 2,431
Trade 1,021 871 632 3,861 5,458

$1 Billion reaped on Trade for 29GWh of electricity…. however, that is “net” and does not include swaps, options, or forward sales apparently after 2002… due to “changes in US Accounting Standards”. Look at the trade numbers in 2002 and 2001, on 20,500GWh and 23,000GWh of electricity sold. So which is the “real” figure?? Did they make less than… or 3x as much as the same unit sold Domestically?? Which is it?

So yes, please… be Power Smart… but also be BC Hydro Smart. We are not, say, California.

….

Oh… and I meant to add.

Remember my post on Electrifying the Rail line on Vancouver Island

At it’s most recent height of use, it would have required about 10.2MW of peak power. In a Domestic system with a current annual peak of 9,000MW, and ceiling of 11,000MW, 10MW to electrify an entire freight and passenger railway all of a sudden doesn’t seem so bad does it?

And that does not include the new MWs coming online from IPPs on the Island this year.

Another fact courtesy of BC Hydro.. one big box retail store (say.. Costco) uses about 0.7MW of hydro power.

That’s about the same as all the Costcos, Home Depots, SuperStores, and Walmarts we have on Vancouver Island. If only we cared as much about this stuff as we did about BUYING stuff.

Hugo Chavez winning election… with caveats.

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It looks like Hugo Chavez is set to win another term as President in Venezuela.

Reuters reports that early official results give Chavez over 60% support and his rival less than 40%.

However, there are reports of irregularities on this Venezuelan blog

7:20 pm est. In perhaps the first credible report of irregularities by an accredited electoral observer, Education Assembly member Leonardo Carvajal said two electoral officials had authorized him to denounce in the media that at several voting centers, armed members of the National Armed Forces had forced electoral workers to keep centers open. At one center, a soldier bearing a machine gun ordered the center to remain open until 9 pm, violating electoral laws.

No doubt this will be headline catching news in the morning here in North America. Lets all hope for a fair, peaceful, result.

Turkey and Iran talk about Iraq

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It seems everyone is talking with everyone else about Iraq… except the two major countries with boots in the sand.

Al Jazeera reports today that the Turkish Prime Minister met with both the President and Supreme Leader of Iran to discuss trade and the security situation in Iraq.

“The main aim of this trip is to study the rapid international development, especially the sensitive situation in Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon, and the responsibility that both nations feel in finding a solution,” state television quoted Erdogan as saying.

With massive protests by Hezbollah and anti-Siniora government forces in Beirut continuing, no doubt the two leaders had much to talk about in Tehran.

I think it is incredibly telling that the United States, Britain, and Israel have been so absent from discussions of what is going in the Middle East right now. Except when talking amongst themselves. And even when Bush showed up in Jordan, he failed to get the tri-lateral summit he had wanted between himself and the Jordanian and Iraqi leaders… and only briefly spoke with both when he got the chance.

To an outsider like me, it looks like the US and Britain have lost the attention and respect of Iraqs immediate neighbours and plans are being made to deal with the situation with or without the help or advice of the Multinational Force in Iraq.

(Update: In other news There has been an attempted assassination of Muqtada Al-Sadr. He was not hurt in the attack… but is just another clear indication that Iraq is deep into a civil-war, that Kofi Annan believes is happening as well

New Liberal Leader – First Green PM?

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(cross-posted to The Oil Drum: Canada)
In a stunning victory, Stephane Dion is the new Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and has a good chance of being the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Stephane Dion
(for those not French-inclined, his name is pronounced “Stay-fan Deon”)

Todays Liberal Leadership Convension was truly something to behold. Not only was it full of odd twists and drama, it produced a result that I don’t think anyone could have predicted.

I believe what has happened here is the Political Establishment has been turned on its’ head, and in todays modern, mature, western Democracies, that is truly something to behold. I think this also signals a major shift to the Green side of the spectrum for the Liberal Party of Canada.

A little background. Stephane Dion had 3 main rivals. An academic and man-of-the-world (but not Canada), Michael Ignatieff, a former Premier of Ontario and turn-coat Left-wing New Democratic Party Leader Bob Rae, and a charismatic, but relatively unknown, Gerard Kennedy.

What appears to have happened, is that a sort of grass-roots, young, progressive force has taken over the Convention in Montreal. Both Gerard Kennedy and Stephane Dion claimed large numbers of young delegates, and after Kennedy dropped off the 3rd ballot and declared his support for Dion, it propelled Dion to victory over the other two more experienced and far-better-funded teams. Stephanes only previous claims to fame were his efforts in 1995 on the Federalists side in the Quebec Referendum, and his brief stint as Environment Minister when he most notably chaired the UN Climate Change Conference in the very same Conference Centre in Montreal.

Stephane Dion in Montreal

Normally this would be nothing more than a changing of the guard… and we could anticipate more of the same old stay-at-home politics. But with Dion, I expect something different. He is the first leader of the Liberal Party that will make the Environment as important in issue as it is to say, the NDP, or even the Green Party. If his speeches and past record as Environment Minister are anything to go by, Stephane Dion brings a level of young exuberance and political forward thinking that issues like Sustainability, Environmental Stewardship and Peak Oil need to really get the attention they deserve.

In his candidate speech before the first ballot on December 1st he said:

In the 21st Century, the countries that will succeed – that will lead – will have the strongest, most sustainable economies. These countries will be rich because they use energy efficiently. Because they use their precious natural resources wisely. Because they recycle and conserve. Because they will export their solutions to the world, and they will earn megatonnes of money with it. I want Canada to be one of these leading countries, at the front of the line.

There will be one major issue that Mr. Dion will have to address when he trumpets his environmental record and that is Canada’s inability to curb its CO2 emissions in the first years after ratifying Kyoto. However, if he can point to the concrete conservation plans (like the Millenium Plan) and other more ambitious plans that he hopefully has up his sleeve, then he should be able to deflect it very easily (especially coming from the Conservatives).

Basically though, what makes me excited is not the grand plans or the good words… ok it is… but really what it is is the possibility of change. The possibility that there will be an Official Opposition in the House of Commons who’s first priority is the environment and sustainability. The possibility that a political party will have at it’s head someone who understands the truly revolutionary times that are about to overtake this generation of voters.

Stephane Dion is both well connected and experienced in the Canadian and International field. He should have no trouble developing and maintaining the contacts that the Liberal Party of Canada and the Government of Canada already enjoys around the world.

Stephane Dion

Up until this day, I thought I’d have to continue to vote for a party that could only get it’s way in a minority environment… or worse, a party who still had to wait for a complete change of the democratic system in order to even have a whiff at the halls of power. Today, there is the possibility that Canadians will have a real choice.

Today, the Liberal Party led by Stephane Dion has, hopefully, taken a step away from the Big Business, Big Establishment past towards a Down-To-Earth, Practical and Independant future. Present Compay in image at left excluded… I only hope his actions live up to his words.

My first priority tomorrow will be to draft a letter to the new Leader of the Liberal Party to ask him his position on Peak Oil and Oil Depletion.

If Stephane Dion wins

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The Liberal Leadership convention is progressing… and it has been, for a political event, quite exciting.

The way I see it, and the way I see it being portrayed on the CBC, is that this is almost like a competition between the Establishment, and “true” Liberals.

Rae and Iggy are the Establishment.. Kennedy and Dion are the outsiders, the true Liberals.

Kennedy appears to have a hugely loyal following, so when he moved into Dions camp, he appears to have taken most of his support with him.

That has thrown Dion into the lead and Rae is dropping out.

I think it comes down to this:

Dion is socially very progressive, obviously incredibly strong on the Environment, and, as indicated by Kennedys move, has very strong support from both Young Liberals, and Ontario Liberals.

If Dion wins, I think we could see our country head in a very strong direction away from tight integration with the USA, and very strongly towards a recommitment to Kyoto and a strong federal government.

We will know in a few hours we will know. But my feeling is that Ignatieff is scaring people away because

a) he hasn’t lived in Canada
b) he supports Afghanistan (and possibly Iraq?)
c) he is just too stiff, and smells like real trouble.
d) he would likely bring us much much closer to US policy.

At this point. I have to hope Dion wins.

I think it’s a choice between the Liberal Party that brought us the Charter of Rights, and Peacekeeping… or one that moves us much further right of center.