We all know pictures make the “news” more interesting… so I got to thinking… I like to cover “International” topics… so maybe my readers would appreciate a Google’s eye view of the days events.

So here are the four main topics I’ve been tracking today… clicking the picture will take you to Google Maps.

#1: Continuing reaction in Iraq…

Fierce streetfighting at my doorstep for the last 3 hours. Rumor in the neighbourhood is that men in black are trying to enter the area.

due to the bombing of this Mosque in Iraq.

#2: The attempted bombing of this Saudi Oil refinery.

Guards opened fire on at least two cars carrying explosives as they tried to ram the gates. Two guards were killed.

#3: The Canadian Men won Olympic Gold in Curling at Turin today.

The 25-year-old skip [Brad Gushue] and his St. John’s-based rink of third Mark Nichols, second Russ Howard and lead Jamie Korab scored six in the sixth end to propel themselves to a 10-4 win over Finland in eight ends in the gold medal game on Friday in Pinerolo, Italy.

Congratulations!

#4: Sticking to the Canadian theme (sort-of)… Ancient Giant Beavers found in Inner Mongolia, China.

Castorocauda was preserved in exquisite detail, flattened in sediments at the bottom of an ancient lake. Hair impressions surround the body, which includes a 20-centimetre-long flat, beaver-like tail.

This is the kind of thing that we should really worry about :

An explosion and shots have been heard at a major oil refinery at Abqaiq in eastern Saudi Arabia, reports say.”

About two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s oil is processed at the Abqaiq refinery, one of the largest in the world.

Oil security analysts have estimated that a serious attack on the Abqaiq facility could halve Saudi exports for up to a year.

Saudi production last year was 9.5 million barrels per day….

A major, successful, attack on that refinery would thus cut production to 4.25 million barrels.

Current world oil production is 89 mbpd

Consumption is 86mbpd

That means… one large attack.. on one large refinery, would cause a shortfall of production of around 1 million barrels per day.

We don’t have much wiggle room.

Were an attack of this sort successful, we’d likely have some “demand destruction” and inevitably higher prices to deal with.

The CounterTerrorism Blog has an update.

The price of crude on the New York went up this morning on the news and is currently trading at around $62.55 up $2.

This is going to be an unpopular post…

Yes, I believe it is long past time for American, British and all other troops to leave Iraq. That is not a new position, nor is it surprising.

What you may be surprised to hear.. because it is certainly not something I have suggested before on this blog… is that I believe it is time to leave Iraq to Iraqis.

After the Coalition leaves, unless specifically requested by the Iraqi government, no effort should be made to insert any other kind of foreign presence, UN, NATO, or otherwise in Iraq. Others who are perhaps more versed than me in geopolitics think otherwise.

I will explain.

Iraq is clearly not the country it was in 2003. Many Iraqis, perhaps most, reject violence… but many others are all too eager to retaliate and cry from retribution, following tribal, religious and ethnic banners.

Foreign troops will only complicate matters.. and provide Iraqis, and foreign jihadis, with a scapegoat. This is why the United Nations traditionally exits any internal conflict before it “goes hot”. Once the situation deteriorates to that point one cannot help but be pulled to one side or the other… or worse, become a target of both sides. (Which is exactly what has happen to American and British troops)

So. It is time to leave Iraq to Iraqis. Yes, by leaving a relative vacuum.. the probability of all out civil war would be even higher. Through history, that is how countries are born. If Iraq splits into 2 or 3 countries… or stays a united Federation, we cannot know, and we should not try to predict or push.

It is up to Iraqis to decide their future, it always has been… and it should have been left up to them in the first place. Now, after 3 years of bloodshed created by the invasion of a foreign army, they must be left to fend for themselves. Not because it is any lesson that *they* need to learn… christ… they’ve been through enough… rather, it’s a lesson we foreigners must learn. We cannot attempt to impose our own will on places we do not fully understand.

America was born through revolution. America suffered terrible civil war. America was not built overnight.. or in 3 years… it took many generations to build the strong, proud, and free America we know today.

Iraqis’ must be allowed now to build their country as they see fit. That will likely mean terrible bloodshed and a very uncertain outcome in the short term.. but in the longterm, hopefully, a stable solution will emerge. Iraq is a country born out of fallen Empires… Ottoman… British… American… it’s now time to allow Iraq to be born (or not) by Iraqis.

Are you going back [to Iraq] anytime soon?

I don’t want to go back.

Really?

Yeah.

… I think once the Americans leave [the Iraqis] will slaughter each other.

This from Fox News Channel War Correspondent Steve Harrigan today on Dayside .

He also said Iraq is “not a story anymore”… people, the media, are losing interest. “It’s repetitive”. What a wonderfully terrible commentary on the attention span of Western citizens…

In contrast, this was his feeling after the January 2005 elections:

I underestimated the Iraqi people, and I think a lot of people did.
This could really be the start of something, and I think it’s great for the Iraqis, it’s great for us to see the Iraqis. It’s great for the US military too. It is a hard slog out there for those guys. Every step they take, even delivering food, they could get blown up.

I think they’ve got a long way to go. But one thing is for sure, is that just like the voters today, they keep coming. The Iraqi policemen have been slaughtered over the last few months, but there’s no shortage of applicants. They’re getting killed, but they keep coming.

I think that after todays events, it is no longer up to the United States to determine when foreign troops leave Iraqi soil. I think, within the next 6 months, one of two things will happen… one good, one bad.

Good: The Iraqi parliament.. driven by an effort to reconcile difference between Sunni and Shia groups.. will formally call for the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Iraqi soil. The last boot will leave by this time next year.

Bad: The terrorist groups will continue to bait each side. The various Sunni, Shia and Kurdish militias will come into direct conflict with each other. The Americans and British will be caught in the middle. The Iraqi government will collapse. A ‘high-intensity’ civil war will break out. American and British troops will not leave Iraq proper, but will be confined to their bases. They will not want to take sides. Eventually, they will leave. And Iraq will descend into civil war.

I am sad for Iraq and Iraqis.

I am sad that it seems much more likely now that there will be more bloodshed before there is more peace.

I am sad that so many Americans thought they were doing Iraq a favour when they advocated Regime Change in Iraq.

War is a sad thing… I guess I better just get used to it.

From an Iraqi:

As if we didn’t have enough problems already!

From where I’m sitting now I can hear both Sunni and Shia mosques are condemning the attack through their loudspeakers.

Things look scary here in Baghdad…

Head of the Sunni endowment sheikh Ahmed al-Samarra’I announces that he will allocate 2 billion dinars (~1.4 million $) for the rebuilding of the shrine from the treasury of the Sunni endowment.

Tight security around the shrine of Abu Haneefa in Aazamiya district of Baghdad, this is considered the top shrine/mosque for Sunni Muslims in Iraq.

People exchange phones calls with their relatives and friends to check on them and discourage them from leaving their homes.

From a reporter in Baghdad:

This all happened when I was in the Green Zone today to interview Lt. Gen. Dempsey, commander of the training command. He cancelled his interview, which baffled his poor public affairs office. He commented that what was happening must be really big if Dempsey is canceling interviews as he’s usually not involved in the day-to-day war fighting details. (“He’s not in the 5-meter knife fight,” the PAO said.) Also, I saw several Apache helicopters taking off from the Green Zone, which is also unusual. Usually, it’s Blackhawks that fill the air. Other military source sources have said the Americans have scaled back all patrols, especially in Shi’ite neighborhoods.

This is the tensest Baghdad has been in two years

Moqtada al-Sadr is holding takfiris (those who call others infidels, i.e., the Salafists and Wahabists), Ba’athists and the “occupation” responsible for the shrine attack.

[says Moqtada]
“It was not the Sunnis who attacked the shrine of imam Al-Hadi, God’s peace be upon him, but rather the occupation; the takfiris, al-nawasib (a derogatory term the Shiites use to refer to Sunnis), God damn them; and the Ba’thists. We should not attack Sunni mosques. I ordered al-Mahdi Army to protect the Shi’ite and Sunni shrines and to show a high sense of responsibility, something they actually did.” Moqtada has also called for a vote in parliament on expelling “foreign forces,”

And finally.. from a scholar in America:

Tuesday was an apocalyptic day in Iraq. I am not normally exactly sanguine about the situation there. But the atmospherics are very, very bad, in a way that most Western observers will miss.

….

Thousands of Shiiites demonnstrated in Samarra and in East Baghdad, against this desecration.

The Twelfh Imam or Mahdi is believed by Shiites to have disappeared into a supernatural realm (just as Christians believe in the ascension of Christ) from which he will someday return.

Some Shiites think his second coming is imminent. Muqtada all-Sadr and his followers are among them. They are livid about this attack on the shrine of the Mahdi’s father.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also a firm believer in the imminent coming of the Mahdi. I worry that Iranian anger will boil over as a result of this bombing of a Shiite millenarian symbol.

Both Sunnis and Americans will be blamed. Very bad

There is not much else to say about today in Iraq.. except… very bad.