Monthly Archives: January 2006

Assessing the Iranian Threat

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Last week, the prospect of a showdown with Iran at the United Nations Security Council seemed inevitable. This week, the rhetoric has been toned down somewhat, and today the Chinese delegation expressed it’s support for a possible Russian solution to Irans nuclear problem.

All that said, there still seems to be plenty of talk about Tehrans, and specifically Ahmadinejad’s threat to Israel and the Greater Middle East with it’s “nuclear” potential.

This has spurred talk of military action against Iran (by either Israel or the US) in order to stop this emerging “threat”… the rhetoric is very reminiscent of the runup to the Iraq War. The question is, is the basis for that response any more legitimate than it was in Iraq?

To answer that question, we have the Arms Control Wonk. They have released an excellent 3-part blog series analyzing, in great detail, the real threat that Iran poses in terms of nuclear capabilities, and what an attack on Iran would do to limit those capabilities.

Their conclusions fall in the “good news/bad news” category. I highly recommend you take the time to read their entire analysis…

Iran and the Bomb 1: How close is Iran?

When some moron like Charles Krauthammer claims Iran is now just “months” away from a bomb, you can pretty much ignore him: He has no idea what he is talking about.

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Most references to Iran being “months” away from a bomb are really statements about how close Iran will be once it completes the FEP [Fuel Enrichment Plant]—something, as you will soon see, that will take a few years.

Iran & the Bomb 2: Iran’s Missiles

Iran’s missiles aren’t that big, and its warheads aren’t that small. Without more testing of both, I think Iran would be hard pressed to deliver a missile to Israel, let alone Europe or the United States.
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The bottom line: Iran might, might, be able to deliver a nuclear weapon against an Israeli city, but that would be at the extreme edge of their capabilities.

Much more worrisome, I would think, would be the weapon delivered by terrorists, perhaps on a ship. [discussed in part 1]

Iran & The Bomb 3: Strike options

folks in the United States defense establishment have clearly begun to at least think about what a military option against Iran’s nuclear programs might look like. Newsweek recently reported “the CIA and DIA have war-gamed the likely consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.”

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Conventional wisdom states that Iran’s facilities are too dispersed to permit a strike like the one Israel conducted against Iraq’s Osiraq nuclear reactor in 1981.

Most of these facilities are quite vulnerable to airstrikes—including the Uranium Conversion Facility at Esfahan and the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz.

I don’t think there is any doubt that the United States could delay Iran’s program by a couple of years, particularly if Iran had to rebuilt its Uranium Conversion Facility and Fuel Enrichment Plants (probably much deeper underground the second time).

There is certainly no reason to launch a strike now, with Iran’s program several years off and many facilities not yet complete. As the cases of Natanz and Esfahan illustrate, a strike now would be conducted with more uncertainty than I would like.

That might buy some additional time—but for what?

… an airstrike now would probably unite Iranians, galvanizing support for a bomb program. Our information about Iran’s bomb program after a strike would likely be much less complete than it is now, having had the benefit of several years of intense IAEA scrutiny.

My take from the whole thing is that we are best to keep doing what we are doing. Our best information is coming straight from the IAEA itself. As long as Iran is working under, or at least under the scrutiny of the IAEA, then we can be relative sure that not too much is getting by and at the same time, we might just get a diplomatic resolution that is acceptable to all parties.

As we saw, in hindsight, in Iraq. The effects of inspections, and dismantling teams in Iraq under the UN and IAEA had a huge impact on the ability of Iraq to conduct WMD research and development. Now that we have that *proven* test case, we should be able to apply that to Iran with full confidence. I will give George W. Bush credit here, he is working with the system and allowing the diplomats their time. I really can’t ask that he do anything different…

However, I think he’s doing so because he and his advisors know the *real* threat from Iran lies in it’s control of world oil production (both directly through production, and indirectly through it’s position on the Straights of Hormuz)

A thousand words.. down to one image and word PEAK

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world oil peak

The only other words that matter are, “the logistic peak is May 2007 ± 4.5 years*” …

….from quite possibly the most gigantic, in depth, analysis ever written. It appeared today at the Oil Drum. I’d recommend putting your thinking cap on.

*4.5 years… that means low end for peak oil was mid-2002 high end is mid-2011… either way.. we’re already well into that range.

I’ve seen (many) political polls with larger margins of error.

This is the stuff wars are made of.

Feeling the Freeze in Europe? Blame Canada!

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At this moment in my hometown of Port Alberni, it is 10.6 degrees Celsius (51F). “Normal” for this time of year is more like 5.6C.

By contrast, Moscow, Russia is currently enjoying -15C weather. This is actually an improvement from last week, when the temperature plummeted to -30C, but still far from the 4C average temperature for this time of year.

Sadly, this froze many Russians to death.

A couple days ago, I found an article on the CBC where Environment Canada weighed in on why it is so unseasonably warm in Canada, and the opposite in Europe. Forgive me for I have lost the link and after much frantic searching cannot find it. So I will paraphrase.

Apparently, Canada usually has a sink of cold, Arctic air sitting over Hudson’s Bay and Baffin Island. This phenomenon is what pulls down Arctic air from the North and into Western and Central Canada.. thus giving Canadians it’s traditionally cold and snowy winters.

This year, however, the sink has travelled further towards Greenland and Europe… thus pulling down cold air in down from the Arctic and West from Siberia. Making for a record breaking chilliness factor in that part of the world.

By extension, it’s absence has allowed warm Pacific winds to fly unhindered across Canada and much of the US… giving all a warmer than usual winter.

I haven’t been complaining too much about the weather here… but then, in BC, there is not much to complain about. But for the sake of those people in Eastern Europe who are dealing with this cold… I think Canadians would gladly take their winter back.

Aside: That is with the exception of the good people of Iqaluit, who are, right now, suffering through a blizzard with 100kph winds. I’m not sure if it’s *ever* not winter up there.

Stephen Harper must Stand up for *all* of Canada

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Many on the right will be exclaiming that this is the beginning of a brave new world for Canada. However, I disagree… this minority government is a step in a new direction, that is for sure, but in order for it to be a real change, other things need to happen… I’ll explain.

There are many strong emotions flowing through Canadian minds today.

On the Right, there is a lot of disappointment in the minority result. A lot of people really got their hopes up when they saw the polls turning towards the Conservatives in January. The strongest supporters of course thought this would surely mean a majority and a decimation of the Liberals in the House. I think a lot of people (Ezra Levant being one?) thought for sure the Liberals would be defeated like the Conservatives were after Mulroney. That simply has not happened and so it is understandable that they are very disappointed, especially with the results within the cities of Toronto, Montreal, Halifax, and Vancouver, where the Conservatives were shutout.

(As an aside, this rural/urban split reminds me greatly of the Democrat/Republican split in the US… and I’m not comfortable with that)

On the Left, we (yes, including me) are feeling torn. I’m glad that many of Paul Martins cabinet ministers were defeated. I’m also glad that Paul Martin himself has stepped down. I’m happy with the results for the NDP (though not in my riding). Jack Laytons message to Liberal voters to “lend” him their votes looks to have worked for now. Now he just needs to prove that he can earn it from them next time. I am disappointed that so many Canadians decided the Conservatives were a better option than the NDP or Green party but I can understand their need to bring a fresh face to government. I don’t think Stephen Harper will do anything to hurt Canada, but I will be very wary of him.. and especially of his ministers. I think that feeling is shared by many…

Canadians have given Stephen Harper and the Conservative party a chance to prove themselves.

In essence, Canadians have, for the first time, voted in a Western, Regional party into power. Yes, the Conservatives gained seats in Ontario and Quebec that allowed them to take power, but you need only look at the results to see where their power base is. Since the Progressive Partyin the 20s, and the Social Credit Party in the 60s-80s… there has been a western, grass-roots party in Canadian Parliament.

Now, Stephen Harper has taken that incredibly strong western base and spread it east to Ottawa, no more can the West, and Albertans in particular, say they are underrepresented in Parliament.

The question now becomes whether Stephen Harper can keep power and grow it into a majority. In order to do that, he will have to use tactics used by his nearest predecessor and the most successful Conservative prime minister ever, Brian Mulroney. Mulroney was able to combine western regionalism with Quebec and Ontarios socialist leanings. Mulroney was, however, starting from a little further to the left himself, so with Harper we have a whole new paradigm.

I think we are going to see an over-representation (given the number of seats) of Quebec and Ontario ministers compared to those from the West as Harper tries to appeal to those voters (this is a Mulroney tactic). This will, frankly, piss off a lot of Albertans. But again, they represent the voting base of this Conservative Party, so they must remember that without them, the Conservative Party of Canada, and Stephen Harper, would not exist.

I think we’re in for a very very wild and unpredictable Parliament.

It’s going to be a lot of fun, and there will be groans of disgust from all sides of the debate as the wheeling and dealing gets revved up.

I hope that, in the end, this election means one thing. That Canada as a country is stronger. We need to start thinking as Canadians again and what is best for Canada because if we let ourselves slip into selfish regional battles, we are doomed to unhappiness. I hope we will be able to finally put aside the scandals of the past and start working on building a better Canada. Paul Martins resignation is one step in doing that. How Stephen Harper leads Parliament will be the other determining factor.

Uniting the House, and Canadians, above all else, will be Stephen Harpers most important task. I hope he is up to the challenge.

Live Blogging the Election Results

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Keep checking this spot for the latest as I see them… obviously.. along with you, on TV. I’ll be focusing of course on my own province and riding but those who know my blog know that I’ll have plenty to say about pretty much anything as it might affect the nation.

Scroll down to see latest update

7PM: Conservatives have a lead no majority yet… NDP has a huge gain in popular vote so far… as was indicated by the last Jan 23rd poll.

7:08PM PST: The CBC is the last to call it… the Conservative Party of Canada will governing Canada in a minority government.

Now we wait to see what the coalition will look like. Who will have the balance of power?

Welcome back Brian Mulroney! Not 30 seconds after I see the Conservatives called… do I see Brian Mulroney being interviewed, from his place in West Palm Beach, FL. Yikes!

7:16PM : The Green Party registers a lead for the first time ever in Canadian election. In the Prince George riding.

7:30PM : Looks like my predictions from yesterday are holding up pretty well. I’ll be the first to say I’m surprised. We’ll see what happens by the end of the night.

7:38PM : The NDP is leading in Van Isle North and Nanaimo-Cowichan so far… no indication yet from my riding

7:52PM : Finally some results from my riding… Conservative candidate is leading by 100 votes.

8:00PM : Looks like James Lunney will take Nanaimo-Alberni, my riding, for the Conservatives. bummer.

8:08PM : Looks like Anne McLellan is booted out of Edmonton, leaving Alberta a Conservative sweep.

8:14PM : Quote of the night so far goes to an analyst on Global (Ezra Levant):

In responding to the notion that this might be a mainly “rural” Conservative government because of the Liberal strength in Toronto.

“The Conservatives have swept major urban centres… Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon… I don’t know about anywhere else but I think Vancouver…”

Yes, those are major centres… they were also *already* Conservative strongholds… and Vancouver is most definitely not a Conservative sweep

8:33PM : I have to say.. the Global coverage is horrendous. I feel like I’m watching Fox News. The dialogue is nasty between the “representatives” of each party, and Ezra Levant is talking “Western Seperation” if some outlandish thing like a Liberal-NDP coalition happens. That would be something that hasn’t happened since the 20s. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

History Lesson

The King-Byng affair.

This was a constitutional crisis that gripped Canada in 1925/26. Mckenzie King called an election… during the election, the Conservatives won a minority, but McKenzie King didn’t renounce his Prime Ministership.. instead he formed a coalition with the “Progressive Party” and formed government which was then beset with corruption with the Liberal Party.

I don’t think we’ll see Paul Martin try to do the same thing… nor do I think Jack Layton would be stupid enough to tie his fate to the sinking Liberal ship.

9:14PM : Liberal Leader Paul Martin announces he will stand down “in the coming days” as Party Leader but will continue as MP.

My bet for new leader:

Belinda Stronach… I would vote for her. (if she was in my riding)

9:52PM : Well it’s pretty much all said and done the final results are going to be around:

Conservatives: 125
Liberal: 104
Bloc Quebecois: 50
NDP: 28
Independent: 1

So I wasn’t too far off on my prediction. ;)

There is some reaction from International News sites.

The BBC has good coverage including a wide selection of bloggers.

CNN has an article on their frontpage

Last Update

Ezra Levant is a nutcase. What is up with that guy? He wonders why the Conservatives didn’t win a seat inside the Toronto or Vancouver city limits? Maybe he should take a look in the mirror!