The official results are in… and the people of Iraq have a new constitution.

As I mentioned in earlier posts, two Sunni provinces voted overwhelmingly against the charter… but the required 2/3 in a third province was not achieved. That said, the UN and other international observers has indicated that all the voting was free and fair and without problem… so the results must be taken as they are. And that’s great.

This is a good day for Iraq. AFter everything that Iraqis have been through I think this… along with the election last January are nothing by GOOD things…. as will the coming elections in December.

There is still plenty going wrong in Iraq though… security being the main problem. As I’ve said before, without a feeling of day-to-day security and well being, these good steps taken by Iraqis at the polls will potentially be wasted. I of course hope that isn’t the case, but at this point no one knows. The simple act of voting in a referendum or election does not bring peace and stability. That requires far more.

One element of this referendum that I think *could* have a positive effect on the security of the country is the fact that Sunnis voted in massive numbers. Hopefully this is a rejection of violence as much as an accepance of the political process.

Only time will tell though.. and of course there are others in the insurgency that would work to dismantle any progress being made.

Today is a good day in Iraq. Be happy. Share your happiness. I think we’ll need it to get us through the next few weeks, months and years.

Secretly commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence this past August… the results, are predictable:

• Forty-five per cent of Iraqis believe attacks against British and American troops are justified - rising to 65 per cent in the British-controlled Maysan province;
• 82 per cent are “strongly opposed” to the presence of coalition troops;
• less than one per cent of the population believes coalition forces are responsible for any improvement in security;
• 67 per cent of Iraqis feel less secure because of the occupation;
• 43 per cent of Iraqis believe conditions for peace and stability have worsened;
• 72 per cent do not have confidence in the multi-national forces.

And, Juan Cole today got a response from Peter Galbraith, former US Ambassador to Croatia… about his comments on the Iraqi Army.

Galbraith says:

I described the Iraqi Army as consisting of nine Kurdish battalions, sixty Shiite battalions, and 45 Sunni Arab battalions. There is exactly one mixed battalion. The Kurdish battalions have no Arab officers, while there are a few Kurdish and Sunni Arab officers with Shiite battalions. Being a Kurdish or Shiite officer of the Sunni Arab battalions is risky, so there are not many at all. This is hardly the picture of a national institution.
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You also describe me as advocating the break up of Iraq. My position is slightly different. I argue that Iraq has already broken up, and that it will be much more costly—in terms of lives and money—to put it back together than to accept the new reality. One reason I like the new Constitution is that I believe it is realistic.
…
I have talked to several prominent Shiite politicians who do say that they might consider separation if Iraq continues to deteriorate and if there is no accomodation with the Sunni Arabs. The “three state soluton” (plus Baghdad as a federal capital) may be the outcome in the context of a federation, but it is not necessarily precursor to the three independent countries. I see two independent states–not three–as the much more likely end result.

Interesting… I never considered a “two state solution”. Of course, this is the “solution” that Turkey was afraid of, what with its’ large Kurdish population. Iran also has a signifcant Kurd population in its’ north west regions. Remember also, that the oil rich regions are the Northern and Souther sections. The central, Sunni, areas are bone dry… so to survive the Sunnis will likely have to rely on either the Kurdish or Shia regions, or both, to survive.

I was going to start by talking about the final tally on the Constitution… but the events of the past few hours has overriden that.

There have been 3 explosions in Baghdad, two smaller and one massive explosion. All in full view of journalist cameras in Baghdad. Christopher Albrighton says:

[The Insurgents] know how to get into the compound. And there’s a good chance the first two explosions were designed to get journalists’ attention, draw them to the windows and then explode the third one…. the blasts rattled my windows and I’m three or so kilometers away.

If you go to CNN.com you’ll see their footage. You can clearly see a cement truck pulling into the compound just after the first explosion. Then, it blows up. One wonders just how much explosive material you can pack into a cement truck.

Initial reports indicate 10 or 15 people wounded. If it hasn’t been clear enough already, the insurgency is using the media as a propaganda tool… as is the Iraqi/American side. So as always, think for yourself and get the facts.

On the constitution… Elections officials are now confirming that the Constitution was rejected in the two major Sunni Provinces of Salahuddin and Anbar.

A third largely Sunni province of Diyala passed the constitution, so that leaves one more Sunni province, Nineveh to decide whether the constitution passes for is rejected.

The multi-ethnic city of Mosul is the capital of Nineveh… so no matter whether it passes or fails, the results will inevitably produce controversy at some point. There have already been accusations by Sunnis that the Kurdish Peshmerga was closing down voting stations on voting day. However, from all accounts I’ve heard, all who wanted to vote were given the opportunity to do so, so now we must only wait and hope for a clean result.

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In other news… we are now approaching 2000 US combat deaths (coalition members not included)… but also remember the 15,000 wounded. According to Reuters and the US Government, while the casualty rate has dropped dramatically since WW2 and Vietnam wars… that still doesn’t mean that thousands of young men and women haven’t suffered terribly. 7100 soldiers have been injured too badly to return to Active Duty. 300 of those have had at least 1 limb amputated.

Update
Aljazeera has actual preliminary numbers for the referendum:

Iraq’s electoral commission head Hussein Hendawi told reporters on Monday that in the Sunni Arab province of Anbar, heartland of the insurgency, 96% voted “no” according to preliminary results.

The sentiment was the same in Salahaddin province. Voters there registered an 81% rejection of the charter. Final results are expected within the next two days.

I will like to see that vote confirmed by observers… but even if it’s off by 10 or even 20 percent, that’s still a massive statement in any democracy in the world.

The following is verbatim the words of one Iraqi describing the trial of Saddam Hussein and the reactions of people around him.

I reproduce it verbatim not because I agree or disagree but rather so that the feelings of these Iraqis are known and recognized for what they are. This is the situation the US has put itself in in Iraq. These are the regular people who oppose them now. This is why unilateral invasion of a country is NEVER a good idea.

“This is insulting,” said a customer who put his hand on his forehead when Saddam appeared walking to his cage. “It’s hard to see your president who ruled you for 35 years in this situation,” he added. “Why do they keep him in the cage?” he wondered. “Is he going to fly?”

“huh! They are trying Saddam in the American Capital in Baghdad, the green zone.”

When Saddam rejected to identify himself, the crowd clapped. “I swear he is a hero,” said one of the crowd. “Look at his brave and strong look,” he added.

This is what 35 years of brainwashing does… and this is why it can’t simply be wished away by knights in shining armour.

Take the 10 minutes.. and please read the entire thing. You will then understand the deep deep divide in Iraq.

Canadians like to think of themselves as very outdoorsy, environment-conscious people. We talk about how great our pristine mountains are, and how our lakes and streams are crystal clear.

Well… if that’s the image we’re trying to project we just got a big kick in the cans cuz CNN had This Headline on their frontpage yesterday.

Canada ‘among worst polluters’.

Hooray Canada! Land of the strong and free and hypocrits!

About the only saving grace of this report is that it was done by Canadians, right here in BC at Simon Fraser University.

“The ability of other high-income countries, such as Sweden, to achieve much lower levels of pollution shows it can be done,” Gunton said in a news release. “There’s no excuse — all it requires is a strong commitment from government.”

The study found Canada has shown no improvement over the last decade. Canada’s rank today is the same as it was in 1992: 28th out of 30.

The US, not surprisingly, is right down there with us at #27… Canadians need to snap out of their arrogant stupor and realise that in terms of the environment, we are just as bad, and even worse, than the US, so we have no right to badger them about polluting their skies.

David Suzuki says it best:

“The Canada we see in this report does not reflect the one we hold in our hearts,” said Suzuki. “Canadians expect more and they expect better,” Suzuki said. “We should be outraged that we are among the worst in the industrialized world.”

That’s right… but will we demand better.. probably not. The NDP, which is the only party with any semblance of a concern for the environment refuses to be tough on this. It’s clear where the pollution is coming from. Canada is still highly dependant on primary resourses for its’ economy. Mining, oil, forestry and others… smelters, open-pit mines, refineries, powerplants, pulp mills. All highly polluting and highly toxic industries.

However, they can ALL be reigned in…

Kyoto is not perfect.. but what it lacks in scientific purpose it makes up for as a rallying poin. We have to force our governments to impose stricter environmental safeguards and we should use the keyword of Kyoto to do it. The Government is trying to download all the responsibility for meeting Kyoto requirements onto consumers, and while it’s not a bad thing to encourage people to be enviro-conscious and energy efficient… it is clear to me now that the Government is simply taking the focus away from the industry and businesses that are polluting our skies and waters.

We live in a wasteful society… and there is no doubt that North Americans in general have no concept of conservation… this is because of our vast empty spaces… we don’t feel the “squeeze” like someone in Tokyo or Paris. The biggest difference is our use of water. It is embarrassing how much literally goes down the drain. From fire hydrants, to toilet water, to the water we use to clean our streets. There are a myriad of situations that could easily use “gray” water… and thus conserve our precious drinking supplies.

I like to think of myself as a pretty enviro-conscious kinda guy.. I have low flow shower heads and a front-loading washer. But there are so many little things that I still take for granted…

Canada should be ashamed, and I hope our lawmakers will be shamed into making real changes. I’ll say it again.. this oil crisis that we are or are not in could be the key to many things. We must use the windfall that we are receiving from the Old Oil Age and use it to build a Cleaner, Brighter future.