A report published in the highly respected British medical Journal The Lancet states this:

Findings:
The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6–4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1–2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000–194000)happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1–419) than in the period before the war.

And further:

Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths.

These are civilian deaths… they do not include Iraqi military. They could include insurgents but as most of the deaths reported are woman and children, that point is largely moot anyway.

You be the judge whether this, plus the 1200 American lives lost was worth the cost.

Here is the report as published in the Lancet.

Or you can download the PDF version of the Report.

So, do you think the Election will be “over” on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning?

Electoral Vote.com is now showing Bush in the lead after a swing to Kerry during the week… but of course, these are simply the “latest” polls on any given day. For every poll that says Bush is leading by 4% there is one that says Kerry is leading by 3%… plus two more that announce a statistical, or exact tie.

One interesting point that I’ve heard mention often over the past few days is that the Challenger in a Presidential election always receives the majority of the “undecided” vote. Moral of the story… every vote counts… and MUST be counted.

On that note, it looks like things are getting ugly:

54,000 Absentee ballots in Florida have gone missing. When was the last time the Post Office lost 54,000 peices of mail from one source?

But, it looks like the Justice Department is mobilising:

840 observers will be monitoring proceedings in key counties that were a source of controversy in 2000. We can only hope they are absolutely impartial and brutally fair.

I also heard, I apologize I can’t find the link now, a great opinion on the state of the electronic voting machines that don’t produce a verifiable, recountable “receipt” or ballot…

How hard is it to use a Bank Machine?
When was the last time you failed to receive the money you wanted from the bank machine?
When was the last time you didn’t receive a receipt from a bank machine (without telling specifically not to).

We’ve had these machines for a decade. Why are the electronic voting machines not modelled after them?
In Canada, the federal election is run by a federal elections body… every Canadian votes in the same manner. Perhaps the US needs to move to a similar model if they want to restore trust and faith in the system.. not to mention lower the confusion level.

Lawyers should not decide elections. Lets hope they don’t have to.

Hey, just wanted to say that the comments are fixed now… I had some problems with spamming of my comments. So I tried to lock it down. I think I’ve found a happy medium for now, but if I haven’t, please ignore any comments you might see from “onlinecasino” or other odd places. I can only go in and delete them so often, so it might take me a few hours to make them “disappear”.

Spam ARRRRAGH… What’s Bush and Kerrys’ position on the Bane of the Internet world??

And if your comments don’t appear right away, don’t fret! They are probably just awaiting the “this is not spam” stamp of approval from me.

thanks!

Chris

Do any of you remember that series? In BC it was largely shown on the public “Knowledge Network”. I always found it really fascinating to see the original footage. You can actually Buy it on DVD now.

I bring it up because the name reflects what I believe is our current situation. After the end of WWII we could say that there were wars going on in the world, even the Cold War, but it didn’t really affect us personally. This is because we were always seperated either politically, geographically, socially, or mentally from the strife going on. Very rarely did it affect the day-to-day lives of ordinary citizens in North America, Europe and other affluent nations.

As a new threat to the affluent, western world emerged in the form of Islamic extremism our reality of perpetual ignorance slowly changed. The first bombing of the World Trade center was a signal that no longer was simple tyranny and power a motivation to kill and strike terror, but rather, a deep jealousy perhaps, or disgust, or insecurity about the indominable position of power that the Western developed world has over the rest. No longer were thoughts of dominating people the motivating force behind an enemy. Instead it was our own affluence, and success, and excess as a society that was under attack.

The US was the brunt of the first wave of these attacks… first on the WTC, then on the Kobar towers and USS Cole. All were motivated for the same reason, perpetrated by the same people.

On 9/11 the war entered a new phase. No longer was simply the US, as the leader and role model of modern affluence, the target. Yes they again faced the brunt, but the attack was truly international in cause and effect. The modern world was suddenly jolted into the realization that *they* were the targets of these Islamic extremists as well. It was their lifestyle that was under attack. Thus when the US declared it would retaliate against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan the world united and supported that action to this day.

I bring all of this up because I was confronted today on my position on the war in Iraq. I was told “I can’t complain” because my country “didn’t participate” in the war in Iraq.

I believe this person to be taking this view because he is still accustomed to the past where wars were fought in other lands, across the sea, and only affected those directly involved. That is no longer the case. We now see that every action we take has a reaction. After 9.11 we had the bombings in Indonesia which killed 100s of Australians. Why? Because they were young, affluent, and each one symbols of the success of the western world.

The case was made for the Iraq war on the basis of an imminent military threat and a possible threat of our new enemies aquiring weapons from Saddams regime. Whether those assertions were true are now a moot point… what matters was that this was not the proper reaction to our new enemy. This was an old response to a very new, very different problem.

Again, this new World War is not based on power, or a desire to conquer others. Rather, it is based on ideologies and emotion. We have seen that pan out as attacks in Madrid before their election, continued attacks against western governments in SE Asia and Indonesia, continued kidnappings of westerners in Iraq, and most recently, uprising in Thailand.

These are all part of the same war and as such affect us all no matter what our position on a single issue.

The Awakening of the world public to the realities of this war after 9/11 meant they understood what needed to be done in order to rectify it. It was accepted that the gap between the have and have nots in the world must be narrowed. That nagging issues like the Palestinian conflict must be solved and that human rights and freedoms *must* be fought for and enforced equally, rather than simply based on political convenience and opportunity.

While there is a military component to this war that must be fought (ie. the capture of AQ leaders and destruction of other Islamic extremist infrastructure) the meat of the battle must be an emotional and ideological one. That is why the Iraq war in its’ current form, is actually having the opposite effect. It is strengthening our enemy not only because we are providing them, literally, with ammunition but also because emotionally we are turning people against us and dividing our own ranks. We are giving reason, motivation to our enemies and we are dividing ourselves into very distinct, very hostil camps.

As in the first two World Wars, the only way to win this war is to show a united front. But the mechanism is very different. We cannot win it militarily. We must win it emotionally. We must create an environment that will not alienate groups. We must prevent jealousy, distrust and anger.

That is why I feel I can complain about the situation in Iraq. Because it is part of this new war, a war that I must deal with and that we all must find a way to bring to a good conclusion.

As with any war, there is an ebb and flow. We’ve recently had set backs, but I believe there is an opportunity now to change the course.

More on that in another article.

Chris

We all know how insane the price of oil, and fuel at the pumps, has been lately. In Victoria it’s currently 93.9c/L. That means it costs me almost $40 just to fill up my very frugal little Toyota Echo hatchback.

Today, we’ve heard that OPEC wants the US to use its’ reserves to bring down prices.

Why? Aside from the hope that it would reduce the global cost of oil (though only temporarily because the US of course only has a limited reserve, and it will have to be replenished afterward..)

Many OPEC members now say that prices are beyond their control and worry that sustained higher costs could eat into future demand growth by spurring use of alternative fuels.

Alternative Fuels!? God forbid!

Could this spike in prices be the signal of the beginning of the end? OPEC is reportedly pumping full out, 100% capacity. And that oil is being gobbled up as fast as it can be produced.

Unlike the 70s when the price of oil jumped mainly because of political forces around the world, this time it’s far more simple. Demand is outstripping supply. Chinas’ economy is growing at a phenomenal rate (something between 5% and 9% in recent years!) and India is also consuming more and more of the black gold. We simply don’t have the capacity to feed all these young, hungry nations.

So now, more than ever, we are seeing the growth of alternative fuels and energy. Wind, sun, sea. Hydrogen, ethanol from grain, and good, old fashioned, water are all being considered as alternatives to our current dependance on oil.

Remember, oil isn’t just about powering and lubricating your transportation needs. Look around you. What items around you do *not* have some sort of plastic/petroleum product in them? I bet you can count them on your fingers.

Nearly everything that we associate with our modern lives is made from petroleum of some sort. If we want to continue to have those products, we’re going to have to make sure we have enough petroleum to make it with.

It is, and will be difficult, but finding an alternative to the oil based economy will be crucial to the continuation of our standard of living.

The fear of OPEC officials that is now coming to the surface is proof that we are succeeding and making progress towards a world that is not prisoner to the wishes of one cartel.